Confident because prices have grown +147.4% over the past decade, tied directly to persistently tight supply — inventory sits at just 1.06 months and new listings equal just 0.22% of dwellings, both well under the ~3-month / ~0.4% balanced-market marks.
Rental Demand
Confident because vacancy is just 0.79% — almost every rental is occupied — and rents have grown +4.49% in the past year. Demand for stock continues to outpace what's available to rent.
Proven long-term growth track record — prices have compounded +147.4% over the decade, and the Growth Rate Cycle Index (230) shows the cycle is still running hot
Low-maintenance, near-full-occupancy hold — 0.79% vacancy means minimal downtime between tenants
Deep, essential-services employment base — Health Care & Social Assistance is the single largest employer (18% of jobs), reinforced by the newly expanded Noarlunga Hospital — relevant for government and health-sector investors
Trade-offs
Onkaparinga has now crossed the $1M median mark ($1,011K), so entry costs sit above many other outer-metro LGAs and the affordability play needs a longer time horizon. That same price growth has outpaced rents, compressing gross yield to 3.1% (down -5.02% YoY) — offset by the depth of committed transport and health infrastructure (T2D, Fleurieu Connections) that continues to underpin medium-term demand and accessibility across the LGA.
Industry sector of employment, 2021 — top 6 by share
Health Care & Social Assistance18%
Retail Trade11%
Construction11%
Education & Training8%
Manufacturing7%
Public Administration & Safety6%
GRP, unemployment and industry charts sourced directly from City of Onkaparinga's public economy.id / profile.id profiles (informed decisions). Population: actual ERP (2015–2025) from economy.id; forecast (2026–2041, medium series) from forecast.id's "Outer South Region" projection, scaled to the 2025 actual — the closest published forecast geography for this LGA, treated here as continuous with City of Onkaparinga.
Market & insurance risk
Higher = more favourable
EDI
56
Variety of industries & employment sources locally
MADI
95
Low reliance on volatile resource sectors
Bushfire Safety
100
Based on vegetation, topography & history
Flood Safety
91
Based on topography, watercourses & history
Demand profile — bedrooms × property type (houses)
3 Bed
4 Bed
5 Bed
2 Bed
1 Bed
3-bed houses dominate buyer & renter search activity (4,839 searches), well ahead of 4-bed (2,368), 5-bed (439), 2-bed (375) and 1-bed (20)
Market trends
Historical data only
Headline values: $1,011K to buy, $604pw to rent, a 3.1% gross yield. Over the past decade, prices have moved +147.39% and rents +84.45% — the widening gap is why yield has been compressing.
1 Month
0.51%
1 Quarter
1.82%
1 Year
10.02%
3 Year
39.62%
5 Year
81.59%
7 Year
132.16%
10 Year
147.39%
Buy
$1,011K↑ +10.02%
Rent
$604pw↑ +4.49%
Yield
3.1%↓ -5.02%
Growth Rate Cycle
GRC Index: 230
GRC Index
230
+ve minus -ve growth months
GRC Minima
-0.88%
Depth of worst slowdown
GPD
49.5%
Growth vs area's own long-run trend
GSP
10.2%
Growth vs surrounding LGA/state
Supply
~178 new listings/month
New stock on market
0.22%
Inventory
1.06 mo
Building approvals
0.91%· 727
Hold period
8.85 yrs
Demand
Typical sale takes 31 days
Days on market
31 days
Vacancy rate
0.79%
Buy & rent search index
6.0 Buy|3.0 Rent
Clearance rate
66.67%
Supply & Demand trend lines and headline figures (new stock, inventory, building approvals, hold period, days on market, vacancy, search index, clearance rate) sourced directly from HtAG Analytics' historical charts, Sept 2021–2026. Forward projection bands shown in HtAG's own charts are not reproduced here, per standard practice for this report series.
Fundamentals
Underlying market quality
A sales ratio of 6.0% and rental ratio of 2%, with local schools ranked 53/100 and $753 of infrastructure spend per capita — the underlying quality signals behind the headline numbers above.
Affordability index — years of income to buy
53.3 yrs
Market stability
Sales ratio
6.0%
Annual sales, % of dwellings
Rental ratio
2%
Annual rentals, % of dwellings
School rank
53/100
Catchment school quality
RO ratio
23%
Owner-occupier vs investor
Infra. spending
$753
Active infrastructure pipeline, per capita
IRSAD
5
Socio-economic advantage index
Public housing
4.6%
Share of dwellings
Unit-to-house ratio
7.00%
Market depth
UH value ratio
62%
Typical unit vs house values
Major infrastructure projects
SA Dept for Infrastructure and Transport, SA Health & City of Onkaparinga
Torrens to Darlington (T2D) Project
A $15.4 billion investment forming the final section of Adelaide's North-South Corridor, delivering 10.5km of non-stop motorway between the River Torrens and Darlington via twin road tunnels. On completion it creates a continuous 78km non-stop route between Gawler and Old Noarlunga, removing 21 sets of traffic lights. For Onkaparinga, this materially improves accessibility to the Adelaide CBD and northern employment corridors, supporting commuter-driven population growth and reinforcing long-term housing demand along the corridor.
Value: $15.4BFunding: SA & Australian Govts ($7.7B each)
Under construction
Aldinga Sports Park Master Plan (Stage 1)
A $4.71 million investment enhancing sporting and community infrastructure at the Aldinga Sports Park, including netball court and cricket net upgrades, new change rooms, accessible public amenities, and civil/landscaping works, delivered jointly by the State Government and City of Onkaparinga. Modern community and recreation facilities like this support liveability and amenity in Onkaparinga's fast-growing southern growth corridor, an area increasingly attractive to young families — reinforcing rental and owner-occupier demand.
Value: $4.71MFunding: SA Govt ($825K) + Council (matching)
Completed
Noarlunga Hospital Expansion
A $74 million investment to expand healthcare services and capacity at Noarlunga Hospital, adding 48 beds — a 24-bed Mental Health Rehabilitation Unit and a 24-bed General Medicine Ward — lifting total capacity from 92 to 152 beds (a 65% increase). Beyond direct health outcomes, an expanded hospital campus is a significant local employer and reduces reliance on transfers to Flinders Medical Centre, supporting both employment opportunities and the essential-services base that underpins long-term rental demand in the surrounding suburbs.
Value: $74MOpened: November 2025
Completed
Main South Road & Victor Harbor Road Duplication (Fleurieu Connections)
An $810 million infrastructure project jointly funded by the State and Federal Governments, duplicating Main South Road between Seaford and Sellicks Beach and Victor Harbor Road between Main South Road and McLaren Vale. The completed dual carriageway, new Aldinga interchange and underpass materially improve traffic flow, safety and connectivity between Onkaparinga's southern suburbs, the Fleurieu Peninsula and metropolitan Adelaide — supporting commuter accessibility and reinforcing long-term housing demand across the LGA's outer-southern growth areas.
Value: $810MFunding: SA & Australian Govts
Completed
Sourced from the SA Department for Infrastructure and Transport, SA Health, and City of Onkaparinga public project announcements. Confirm current status before relying on this for a purchase decision.
What these numbers mean
Plain-English definitions
Economic profile
Gross Regional Product (GRP)
The total value of all goods and services produced within the LGA in a year — the local equivalent of GDP, a measure of the strength and size of the area's economy.
Population (ERP)
Estimated Resident Population — the ABS's official population count for the area, plus forward forecasts based on historical growth patterns.
Unemployment Rate
The share of the local labour force actively looking for work but not currently employed, measured quarterly.
Industry Sector of Employment
The percentage of local workers employed in each industry — shows what the area's economy actually runs on, and how reliant it is on any one sector.
Scores & risk
EDI
Economic Diversity Index — how many different industries employ people locally. Higher = less exposed to a single employer or sector downturn.
MADI
Mining & Agriculture Dominance Index — how reliant the local economy is on volatile resource sectors. Higher = less reliant, more stable.
Bushfire / Flood Safety
A safety score from 0–100 based on vegetation, topography, watercourses and historical incidents. Higher = safer.
IRSAD
ABS Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage — a decile (1–10) measuring the area's socio-economic profile. Higher = more advantaged.
Market trends
Typical price / Yield
Typical price is recalculated every month for the current month and all previous months. Yield is the resulting gross rental yield.
Growth Rate Cycle (GRC)
Tracks the speed of price growth, not price itself. A rising curve means growth is accelerating; a falling curve means it's cooling.
GRC Index
The area's current position in its growth cycle, calculated as the number of months with positive growth minus the number of months with negative growth.
GRC Minima
The lowest cyclical growth-rate point the area has recorded — the depth of its worst slowdown.
GPD (Growth Pattern Deviation)
How current growth compares with the area's own long-run trend, across 1-year, 3-year and 5-year windows.
GSP (Growth Spillover Potential)
How the area's growth compares with the surrounding council area or state/territory, across 1-year, 3-year and 5-year windows.
Supply & demand
Stock on Market (SoM)
New listings as a % of total dwellings. Below ~0.4% is considered low supply — a tight market.
Inventory
Months it would take to sell all current stock at the recent sales rate. Under ~2.1 months = low supply.
Building Approvals
New dwelling approvals as a % of total dwellings — a forward indicator of future supply.
Hold Period
The average length of time owners keep a property before selling. Over ~10.4 years = tightly held.
Days on Market (DOM)
The typical time a property takes to sell. Under ~35 days = high demand.
Vacancy Rate
The share of rental dwellings sitting vacant for 21+ days. Under ~1% = very high tenant demand.
Search Index (Buy & Rent)
Online search interest relative to the state average, on a scale where 5 = average.
Clearance Rate
The share of properties that sell (at auction or otherwise) rather than being withdrawn. Above ~70% = high demand.
Fundamentals & projections
Affordability Index
Years of median household income required to buy the typical property outright.
Sales / Rental Ratio
Annual sales (or rentals) as a % of total dwellings — a measure of how much of the suburb turns over each year.
School Rank
Catchment school quality, scored out of 100 based on academic performance data.
RO Ratio
The balance of owner-occupiers to investors in the suburb.
Infra. Spending
Non-residential building approval value per adult resident — a proxy for how much infrastructure investment is flowing into the area.
Unit-to-House / UH Value Ratio
How much of the housing stock is units vs houses, and how unit prices compare to house prices in the same area.
Definitions simplified for client readability — see HtAG's own data dictionary for full technical methodology.
Important: Market data sourced from HtAG Analytics. Infrastructure data from public state government and health department registers.
Figures shown are indicative and general in nature only, and do not constitute personal financial, investment, or legal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. You should seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Mindset Property Pty Ltd, ACN 664 657 247.
